Futures thinking
Futures thinking is a range of techniques that can support an understanding of the drivers shaping the future.
Futures thinking is also known as future studies and strategic foresight.
These methods help explore the implications of these drivers for decisions making today and hence what to do, when to do it, and how to do it.
Futures thinking is not an attempt to predict the future, pre-determine the future, or promote a particular version of the future.
Futures thinking does assert that the future is influenced by the decisions of today.
Futures thinking uses a divergent thinking approach that is inherently creative in the exploration of multiple answers and embraces uncertainty.
Futures thinking is `different to ‘analytical thinking’ methods that use convergent thinking to seek what is perceived to the right/best answer and the attempt to reduce uncertainty.
Futures thinking is considered a discipline that can be used in strategy and policy design, development and planning.
How futures thinking can support policy development
Insights accrued from using the futures thinking methods can be used in the policy development process.
Futures thinking is particularly helpful when used in conjunction with other inputs such as qualitative and quantitative data and other evidence.
Futures thinking can work well with other methods such as design and evaluative thinking to guide policy advice. Futures thinking can be used to generate specific policy recommendations and/or better consider the long-term potential impacts.
Futures thinking can be used at all the stages of policy development from early issue framing, strategic priorities, to the subsequent identification and testing of the range of possible (future) scenarios.
Futures thinking is flexible and encourages the application of the method different ways in policy development including:
applying the most useful methods that have emerged from futures thinking tools and techniques to the policy problem (rather than feeling obliged to use all for the sake of process);
utilising and building upon the outputs of other existing futures thinking work conducted elsewhere and applying it to develop policy.
How futures thinking works
Futures thinking is good for developing a better understanding of policy options by drawing out the long-term issues or challenges shaping the future in the policy area. The use of futures thinking as an embedded component of policy processes helps to:
identify and test the underlying assumptions (at all levels - individual, team, organisation, and wider system) that are influencing how the policy issue is being considered and to test those assumptions against a changing context.
discover the context beyond existing assumptions about the future to include a wider range of alternatives within which the policy may be required to apply.
produce new insights into possible future developments that can be used in the framing of policy.
consider future possible consequences including the ‘intended and unintended’ outcomes of a policy in different contexts.
reduce risks around policy work by making it more resilient to changing future conditions whilst also being flexible enough to adapt to emergent opportunities.
What future thinking involves
Futures thinking involves scanning for indications of change that may alter the nature and the range of futures. This should include change considered highly likely, as well as change that is highly unlikely but that could have significant impact.
The use of diverse data sources including quantitative and qualitative data, existing research, and insights gained from stakeholders.
The engagement of diverse stakeholders who can provide their varied views and experiences and allow testing about the future implications of policy options.
The application of a wider systems lens that includes considerations immediately pertinent to policy, but also the macro conditions shaping the likes of the international, political, legal, technological, environmental, economic, social, and organisational context over coming years.
What policy developers can get from future thinking
More innovative recommendations that challenge underlying assumptions.
Policy developed that is informed by a more diverse range of sources including solutions that are usually missed.
Policy proposals better aligned to a range of futures and flexible enough to mitigate emergent risks and support exploitation of opportunities.
Policy that guides work towards future states and increases the likelihood of preferred outcomes.
The heavy use of stakeholder engagement in future thinking processes can build more resilient support for policy outcomes and increase the level of stakeholder support on the journey.
When to use design thinking
When the work is on complex issues where there are high levels of ambiguity and uncertainty around the possible outcomes.
Where there is incomplete or limited data/evidence to reference and/or where the problem is in a highly complex and evolving wider system.
Policy work where possible future interests could overwhelmingly bias thinking towards the present. This may include challenges that are very incrementally over long timeframes and where there is a tendency to defer policy planning and responses.
The policy work is specifically focused on the medium to long term issues.
The work has been commissioned by sponsors who are willing to contest existing assumptions and use new methods (to get different results).
The limitations of future thinking methods
Futures thinking methods can create tensions if it reveals issues that are not being addressed within current policies.
The broad themes that futures thinking explores can generate overlaps and duplication between different disciplines and result in critique that the method is regurgitating existing knowledge. It needs to be clear where and what the futures thinking builds upon.
Where there is reasonable certainty about the direction, nature and pace of change, futures thinking may be of limited value. This is because futures thinking techniques are inherently intended to test assumptions and broaden the scope of thinking.
Futures thinking may create tensions if stakeholders have not been adequately prepared and are willing to test their assumptions and thinking models. It can be helpful to take a targeted approach with initial future thinking exercises with key sponsors and decision-makers to win their support.
Futures thinking can take time to develop as well as the necessary skills around the different futures thinking tools and techniques.
Future thinking tools
There are a number of tools and techniques have been developed to support futures thinking. Some frequently used futures thinking tools include:
Horizon Scanning
Horizon scanning involves reviewing a range of source information (e.g. research, news, commentaries, blogs etc) to identify indicators of possible change. It may also involve stakeholder interviews and workshops.
Different frameworks can be used for horizon scanning. Versions of PESTLE can be used to identify possible change across the domains of Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, Legislative and Environment.
This analysis can then be collated into themes and consideration of the relationships between each. This will provide emerging areas to discuss with stakeholders that may impact the policy.
This will help identify the possible drivers of change requiring preparatory effort and test assumptions about the future.
Horizon scanning works well as an ongoing activity that keeps information fresh and relevant.
As a technique, horizon scanning can have limitations based upon the cognitive biases of the individuals doing the exercise and result in weak insights.
The outputs of horizon scanning frequently needs to be interpreted to identify what is ultimately most important and how these changes may affect your policy area.
Future ‘scenarios’
Scenarios are akin to ‘stories’ that describe alternative ways that the external environment could develop in the future.
Scenarios help to explore how multiple drivers of change come together to influence different possible futures and what this may mean for policy development.
The scenario method can help stakeholders engage with different possible futures and provide a way to navigate from theoretical to real world assessments of the policy impact.
This method can identify preferred scenario/s that can be used as a target future state that the policy can work towards.
Has the option of creating your own scenarios or using existing scenarios.
Scenario planning usually involves defining the problem or question being considered and identifying and analysing the drivers of change.
Constructing scenario frameworks based on different assumptions about the drivers of change and developing the story lines for each scenario.
The development of useful scenarios may cover multiple futures and need to be clear, concise, plausible, provocative as well as test assumptions.
The scenarios developed can be tested for resilience against existing policy and provide context for new policy development.
Future scenarios can help challenge status quo, raise questions and build a shared understanding of opportunities and challenges. This method does require drivers of change to be identified and usually requires senior stakeholder sponsorship to follow through on the ‘so what’ once scenarios are developed.
Future scenarios can absorb a lot of time and effort creating realistic and useful scenarios with supporting data/evidence and can be subsequently mistaken for outright forecasts or predictions of the future.
Futures wheel is essentially structured brainstorming that helps policy makers visualise how important trends or events may impact the policy area.
It can be used to help identify the impact on policy areas if an particular event or decision happens.
Helps you think about how to manage the event or decision or take advantage of any opportunities it presents.
The future wheel method involves selecting a trend, event or decision and putting it at the centre of the wheel.
A workshop is used to unpack the direct consequences of an event or decision including the consequences for the ‘spokes’ of the wheel. Consequences are considered at the ‘first’ ‘second’ ‘third’ and ‘fourth’ order.
A visual map is then usually produced that concisely summarises the thinking, interactions and emergent patterns.
Futures wheel is good for identifying unintended consequences and identifying and mapping connections and causalities possibly emerging from a decision or event.
Future wheel is not as good at highlighting blind spots so the results may only show the obvious impacts of change.
Assumption Testing
Assumption testing is a method that supports identifying the key questions and conscious/unconscious assumptions shaping policy analysis.
This method is primarily around the use of different ways of testing assumptions including: (1) assumption reversal which involves listing all assumptions about the current situation/context and reversing each assumption in order to develop new ideas (2) listing your assumptions about the current environment and then testing the resilience of these against a range of possible future scenarios. Sound assumptions will emerge as more credible and can help planning.
Assumption testing identifies insights and pin-points possible blind spots and hence is helpful at the early phases of the policy process. It can be applied to most policy analysis.
While assumption testing can be used with a diverse group of people it can be hard to identify unconscious assumptions
Wind tunnelling foresight
Wind tunnelling foresight is akin to ‘stress testing’ policy options against a range of scenarios to see how well they respond to these conditions.
Wind tunnelling can be used to understand how different future conditions may affect the performance of a policy. Potential policy options can be analysed against realistic future scenarios to determine a preferred policy that will perform well in multiple futures and changing conditions.
The wind tunnelling method uses previously developed scenarios in workshops where participants consider the policy and objectives against the different scenarios. This is intended to test how the policy may perform within different conditions including those that scenarios that may disrupt, de-rail or stop the policy.
The obvious advantage of wind tunnelling is that it gives an opportunity to test how robust a policy is in future possible conditions and identify events that might trigger the necessity for policy adjustment.
Policies going through this method do need to be well developed to be able to credibly test them and pre-work on the different scenarios. Wind tunnelling can also allow confirmation biases to persist.
Backcasting
Backcasting is the method of working backwards from a preferred future state to identify the steps or actions needed to help shape the desired future.
Backcasting helps identify the enablers and barriers to achieving your preferred future usually through a workshop discussion with participants working backwards identifying the changes needed (to make the desired future/s happen).
The workshop itself usually commences an initial brainstorming session where the changes needed are identified. These are then tested, analysed, and refined with a pathway developed from current to desired future.
An action plan can then developed which sets out the key steps over a timeline.
Backcasting can support the development of a shared view of the actions required to navigate to the preferred future but requires pre-work to identify range of potential futures (or risks developing a simplistic projection of the current state into a future state.
The backcasting method can work well when it's unclear how to realistically achieve the preferred future state however can lead to an optimism bias and not facilitate divergent or creative thinking.
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